antipaucity

I omitted something kinda big when I wrote my one-time UBI proposal last year.

I neglected to address welfare reform.

Welfare would have to be changed for UBI to even have a half a prayer of working.

The “easy” way to do this would be to phase-in reduced welfare benefits on a prorated-equivalent basis for the UBI payment you receive.

Surely there are many other ways to address welfare as part of the one-time universal basic income – suggest them below!

Do I have to participate?

And I missed a second point, too – this should be something you can opt-out of. Just like I wrote about Social Security lo those many moons ago.

No one should be forced to participate – though I strongly suspect most people would rather participate than not.

What about when the program starts?

A third missed point in last year’s thought experiment – a prorated one-time UBI for every citizen over 18 when the program starts. Take the average life expectancy of a USian of, say, 75 years. Subtract 18 to get 57 – there is your basis “100%” one-time payment.

There also needs to be a phase-out cap on one-time benefits at age 74 (ie, when you turn 75, you are no longer eligible to receive a payout).

Now take your age, subtract 18, and divide by 57, and subtract from 100% to get your prorated payment. Are you 27? (27-18)/57 = ~15.8%. 100%-15.8% = 84.2%.

84.2% of $100,000 is $84,200.

Same process if you’re 50: (50-18)/57 = ~56.1%. 100%-56.1% = 43.9%.

43.9% of $100,000 is $43,900.

What if you’re 80? Congratulations! You’ve outlived the average American!

A lot of talk has been made in the past couple years (and even currently by one of the fellas running for the 2020 Democratic Party nomination to be their candidate for President) of governments (which really means taxpayers) funding a universal basic income.

Alaska’s been doing something like this for close to 40 years.

So have several other places – including Finland.

In the vein of Scott Adams (sidebar – if you’re not listening to his podcast (or watching it on YouTube (or participating in the Periscopes)), you should), here’s an idea.

At birth, every citizen born in the United States will be granted $100,000 in a safe financial vehicle (T-Bills? Savings bonds? CDs redeemable at a Federal Reserve Bank?) – as a prorated benefit over 18 years (if, God forbid, they die before adulthood – accumulated funds will be designated to their parents or legal guardians in the event they pass before reaching their 18th birthday.).

That’s an accumulating ~$5555 per year for 18 years.

There are about 4 million babies born in the US every year.

Additional cost to taxpayers (ie the Federal budget)? About $22.2 billion per year² (for ~20-25 years, then it would be flat (at ~$550B/year), presuming no major increase in birth rate).

But when you turn 18, BAM!

$100,000 to do with whatsoever your heart desires.

Down payment on a house? Check.

New car? Check.

Tuition to college or trade school? Check.

Invest in stocks, bonds, starting a business? Check.

Roll-over into an IRA? Check.

It’s yours.

Tax-free.

To keep.

To do with whatever and however you like.

What would you do with it?

I want you to watch these 6 movies (in this order):

• The Wizard of Oz
• Ferris Bueller’s Day Off
• Night of the Living Dead (1968 edition)
• The Godfather
• Pi
• Inception

Watch them with a notebook and pen or pencil handy (yes: use physical writing and recording tools; don’t use your laptop, tablet, or phone).

Write things you see that jump out at you about the story – how it is told, what is explicitly stated, what is implicitly hinted-at, what is alluded-to, etc.

Start with the very first thing you see after the title credits finish.

I’ll give you a hint, and highlight a small handful of items from the first ~15 minutes of The Wizard of Oz:

1. Everything is gray (well, sepia)
2. Dorothy is whiny
3. Dorothy is obsessed with her dog
   1. Why is Toto going anywhere with Dorothy off the farm grounds?
   2. Especially, why is Dorothy taking Toto near Ms Gulch’s cats?
4. Dorothy is an orphan
   1. Auntie Em & and Uncle Henry are on the farm, but
   2. no parents anywhere in sight
5. When Dorothy wakes up in Oz, everything is in eye-popping, brilliant Technicolor

Tell me what you find – I’m intensely intrigued to see how your lists compare to mine.

As a society, we have forgotten how to forget. We are addicted to storing everything forever. Why?

New Atlas had an article recently on the demise of skyscrapers in favor of new ones which starts off,

The Great Pyramid of Giza has stood at a height of around 460 feet for 4,500 years, but these days we are ripping down tall structures without even batting an eyelid. A new study looking at the average lifespan of demolished skyscrapers illustrates just how quick we are to pull the trigger, raising the question of how we could reimagine tower design so that they last centuries rather than decades.

I ask, first: why should we design things to “last centuries rather than decades”?

Yes, the future impact of decisions made today must be carefully evaluated (“concrete cannot be recycled, and most of the tallest buildings in the world use concrete for their main structural system”).

But designing for “centuries” is not the answer.

Or, at least, it’s not the answer.

It’s not a panacea – though there may be some occasional use cases for expecting a structure to last generationally.

But since time immemorial, buildings have mostly been built with at least an unconscious knowledge they would not exist “forever”.

Sure, there are interesting historical sites (such as these now-destroyed Mayan ruins) that we might have liked to keep. But reuse of old materials is part and parcel of civilizational progress.

In a recent episode of Paul’s Security Weekly, an off-hand comment was made about documentation: you shouldn’t merely document what to do, nor even why, but also what you tried that didn’t work (ie, augment the status quo).

The upshot being, to save whomever comes to this note next (especially if it turns out to be yourself) effort you spent that was in vain.

This is similar to a famous quote attributed to Edison,

I have not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.

In light of my recommended, preferred practice and policy of “terse verbosity“, I would strongly suggest not placing the “doesn’t work” in-line, typically. Instead, put footnotes, an appendix, etc. But always

explain everything you did, but use bullet points if possible, rather than prose form

Loads of other goodies in that episode, too – but this one jumped-out as applicable to everyone.

Schneier has a recent article on security concerns for IoT (internet of things) devices – IoT Cybersecurity: What’s Plan B?

We can try to shop our ideals and demand more security, but companies don’t compete on IoT safety — and we security experts aren’t a large enough market force to make a difference.

We need a Plan B, although I’m not sure what that is. Comment if you have any ideas.

There are loads of great comments on the post.

Here’s the start of some of my thoughts:

There are a host of avenues which need to be gone down and addressed regarding device security in general, and IoT security in particular.

Any certification program could be good .. right up until the vendor goes out of business. Or ends the product line. Or ends formal support. Unless we go to a lease model for everything, you’re going to have unsupported/unsupportable devices out there.

We can’t have patches ad infinitum because it’s not practical: every vendor EOLs products (from OSes to firearms to DB servers to cars, etc).

A few things which would be good:

• safe/secure by default from the vendor – you have to manually de-safe it to use it (like a rifle which only becomes usable/dangerous/operable when you load a cartridge and put the safety off)
• well-known, highly-publicized support lifecycles (caveating the vendor going out of business)
• related to the above, notifications from the device as it nears end of support
• notifications from the device as well as the vendor that updates/patches are available
• liability regulations – and an associated insurance structure – affecting businesses which choose to offer IoT devices across a few levels:
  1. here it is :: you deal with it || no support, no insurance, whatever risk is there is your problem
  2. patches / updates for 1 year || basic insurance / guarantee of operation through supported period, as long as you’re patched up to date
  3. patches / updates for 3 years ||
  4. patches / updates for 5 years || first-level business offering || insurance against hacks / flaws that have been disclosed for more than 90 days so long as you have patched
  5. patches / updates for 10 years || enterprise / long-term support || “big” insurance coverage (up to a year, so long as you’re yp-to-date) || proactive notifications from the vendor to customers regarding flaws, patches, etc

There are probably other things which need to be considered.

But there’s my start.

Just what is journalism going to look like in the future?

It’s a question that’s been bouncing around my head for a while, and articulated in various pieces by Ben Thompson (in a nichification process), my friend Eric Hydrick, and others.

Eric brought up the idea of supporting “special” journalism through services like Patreon.

I think that’s a start … but still limits – as do paywalls, subscriptions, etc – informing the populace to those who care enough to pay intentionally and specifically for that publication / journalist / etc.

I think an improvement upon that is a bucket approach. I outlined one such possible technique in my recent critique of Pi-hole:

Maybe there needs to be a per-hour, per-article, per-something option – a penny for an hour, for example (which, ftr, comes out to a monthly fee of about $7)- so that viewers can toss some scrilla towards the creators, but aren’t permanently encumbered by subscriptions they’ll soon forget about

I’ll go out on a limb and predict “journalism”, as we have known it for hundreds of years, is going to completely disappear in the next 10 years. Now, that doesn’t mean it’s completely going away (though, with the general willful ignorance of people…maybe it will). It does mean, though, that it’s going to be radically different in form.

With the rise of decentralized (and, now, recentralized) publishing with widespread adoption of the world wide web, everyone can (and, maybe, should) be a publisher.

The overwhelming majority of publishers are not receiving anything from their writing – except personal satisfaction (that includes myself .. in 20+ years of having websites, blogs, etc, I’ve made about $35 online). And publishing for “free” (ie, self-funded) should always be an option: as a content creator, it should always be up to you as to whether you wish to charge for what you’ve made.

But if you want the possibility of getting paid for your work, that should be an option, too: and while you might be “worth” subscribing to, the odds are very good you are not. And that leaves a quandary: how can you get paid for your work (if you want), without encumbering your audience into either leaving instantly, or succumbing to pressure to subscribe.

Which is why I think a bucket approach could work well – you’d know how much you had available in your balance, recharging would be simple (could even be automated – hit a threshold, recharge to some preset amount), and you’d know exactly who was getting your money, and, more importanly, for what – it’s not some ambiguous “subscription” to a “site”, but paying for precisely the content you see (or want to see).

In many ways, it’s extending the Patreon idea, which is really just a modern reimagining of patronage, from mere individual shows, sites, etc, down to a granularity of specific pages, articles, images, etc.

And let’s not even talk about the analytics that could be performed on payments and page views under such a model: identifying regions that are interested in certain content, audiences that like certain things, what are immediate turn-offs, etc. Incorporate some form of solid feedback/interaction mechanism, and you could possibly develop healthy gamification of your site: maybe even waiving monetary contribution if you hit certain levels of interaction on the site.

Active community building via people who actually care (and that just happens to fund the service).

Now that would be something.