Archive for the ‘commentary’ Category

oracle discontinuing itanium support

Thursday, March 24th, 2011

This morning I saw the headline on InfoWorld: “Oracle stopping development on Itanium — slap at HP or obvious decision?

At my previous employer, we were entertained by a couple visits from both HP and Intel folks ballyhooing the Itanium, HP-UX, and the future of the platform – especially in the database arena.

I thought those visits were pretty funny because every company I have seen with any HP-UX installed base has been migrating off to either AIX or Linux for some time, leading me to conclude that HP-UX is a dead platform. The fact that Microsoft and Red Hat both dropped support for Itanium processors with there last OS releases also tells me that Itanium is not here for the long haul – at least not in anything other than specialized platforms (such as some of the Top 500 entrants).

Yes, in Japan Fujitsu and others are shipping Itanium-based products, but they’re not running anywhere outside of Asia.

Intel had the chance 15 years ago to produce the game-changer for the server and home markets. If they had properly implemented an x86 emulation module (or, shoot, put an x86 processor on the die and switched via microcode), AMD’s x64 extensions would never have taken off the way they did, and we wouldn’t be stuck with bizarre functionality that only made sense in a 16bit world – but not anymore.

But between HP and Intel, they horched the platform, delaying it by months then years. In the process, the venerable DEC Alpha was killed-off by HP, as was HP’s own PA-RISC line.

In my opinion, Oracle’s move is brilliant for a couple reasons:

  • HP-UX is dead
  • Itanium has no future with any other OS vendor
  • Larry Ellison wants to push OEL and some form of Solaris (though I’m convinced Solaris is not long for this world either)
  • Larry Ellison doesn’t care what other people think of him
  • Oracle is making more money than they know what to do with – so why support something you don’t want to?

What think ye?

the deadly sins of programming – again?

Friday, February 18th, 2011

InfoWorld this week published yet another article on “The 7 deadly sins of software development”. For those who don’t care to read the ~1 page article (that’s split unless you use the “print” option that puts it all on one page), here’s the list:

  1. Lust – overengineering
  2. Gluttony – not refactoring
  3. Greed – cross-team competition
  4. Sloth – not validating input
  5. Wrath – no/bad comments
  6. Envy – no version control
  7. Pride – no unit testing

Spiffy. Items 1, 4, 5, and 7 are beaten to DEATH in every computer science / information systems / intro programming / advanced programming / algorithms / data structures / etc / etc class I have every attended, read about, heard about, or thought about. Why is it rehashed AGAIN by InfoWorld?

Better yet, why does an article like this appear every 9-18 months (or more!) in a major publication or on a major website (InfoWorld, ComputerWorld, arstechnica, joelonsoftware, codinghorror, etc etc)?

Is it because, as my friend Steven said they’re ‘basically new writers {“i’m fresh out of college and i know everything”} or quotas on programming articles‘? Is it because programmers are really THAT lazy? Or that bad? Or that inconsiderate? Or that management hasn’t encouraged a culture of excellence and teamwork? Yes, shipping IS a feature. It’s really important. So is having developers who care about their work – and who care for their fellow workers who will have to look at / modify / care for / clean their work later.

Lack of version control will bite you HARD everytime you don’t use it (don’t ask how I know – call it a Bad Experience™). Competing with other teams is just dumb: you’re all supposed to be working for the same company, the same end goal, and, ultimately, the same customers who will eventually pay for whatever it is you’re writing (I’ll relate another moderately-humorous anecdote on that another time).

If developers really are that bad, or their employers are bad enough to not help/fix behavior, then we’re all in a lot of trouble. And if they’re not – then it must just be that it was a slow week, so somebody thought they’d regurgitate and modify the same thing we’ve all heard hundreds of times.

john stossel’s show last night

Friday, April 23rd, 2010

health care “reform”?

Monday, March 22nd, 2010

The problem with health care in America is NOT that too many people don’t have it.

And it’s NOT that it’s too expensive (though it is expensive).

The problem with health care in America is that there is no reason for people to pay for what they can get for “free”. And if something goes wrong, you’re just a phone call away from heaps of cash (after the 35-50% that goes to the lawyers, of course).

I see people using the Emergency Room as their Primary Care Facility. Not because they think it’s better than a doctor’s office, but because if they can’t pay for it, the hospital can’t come after them.

The bill that passed the House last night, supporting President Obama’s “Hope and Change” agenda is going to cost taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.  The only way of paying for that, since the government never CUTS spending (except for President Clinton who cut our defense budget in the 90s), is for taxes to be increased.

As it stands now, someone earning $40k in the US (depending on the state) pays about 9% to Social Security and Medicare. Another 0-10% to their state. And 10-20% to the IRS. That’s a total of 20-40% of their income being taken from them. Add on top of that the sales taxes that [almost] every jurisdiction in the country charges (4-10% from where I’ve been, except OR and DE). Also add-in fuel “surcharges”, phone taxes, etc – and the typical American is paying about 50% of their income to various taxes.

Yes, I do understand that government services are paid-for with taxes. And I understand there are a host of taxes available. Some people even manage to pay [almost] no taxes. Due to earning too little, there are a host of Americans who benefit from government services who never pay into them (other than sales taxes).

Should citizens benefit from their government’s provided services? Of course. Should citizens contribute (something) to benefit? I believe that is also a resounding “YES“.

Should citizens be forced to pay for things they are not using? That’s where this health care “reform” bill has me against it. It’s where most of the state and federal budget items have me upset.

Property taxes supposedly pay for education in most areas. Except, of course, for where there are “educational” lotteries. If lotteries pay for education, why are property taxes still as high as they are? And if property taxes pay for them, then the lotteries are just get-rich-quick-schemes taking advantage of people who can’t do math. (Personally, I think if you can derive $1 of entertainment from a scratch-off ticket, then it’s ok; it’s when someone looks to the lottery as a “way out” of their current economic situation that I have a problem – they’ll keep coming back and back and back, because “you can’t win if you don’t play”.)

Fuel taxes supposedly pay for road maintenance and expansion.

Income taxes (personal and corporate [and capital gains and taxes on interest earned etc]) pay for pretty much everything else.

The current federal budget is about $3 trillion. I have no idea how much money that is. No one does. If you split it evenly over the population, it’s about $10000 per person (man, woman, boy, and girl) in America. According to the BEA, Americans earned about $5 trillion in personal income last year (excluding the $1 trillion governments paid in salaries). Additional to that was another about $1 trillion earned by proprietors of businesses. After all is said and done, that comes out to a per capita earnings of about $35000.

Estimates I have seen so far put the cost to the federal government (and therefore US – taxpayers: it’s where the “government” gets its money from) in the range of about $1000-5000 billion ($1-5 trillion) over the next decade. That’s an additional $100 billion per year – just over the next 10 years. That’s an increase to our national budget of about 3-15% per year. As a percentage, the bottom of the range is not big (but the top is huge). As a “real” number, the whole range is huge.

Various reports put the number of “uninsured” in America at 30-45 million people, or about 10-15% of the population. Why is it important that these folks become insured? What percentage of those “uninsured” actually NEED coverage? Why do they not have it? Is it truly because they cannot afford it (they earn too little, etc)? Is it because they DO NOT NEED coverage? I went without health insurance for 4 years. I’ve had it since January 2007, and haven’t needed it yet. It would be far far cheaper for me to not have health insurance and just pay my doctor once a year when I go for a checkup than it is to pay for insurance. (Yes, if I *did* need it, it would be nice to have.)

What costs are actually associated with health care? How much of that $200 you pay your doctor per visit is really associated with “care”, and how much goes to overhead costs, such as staff and their OWN insurance in the event the patient decides to sue them? The medical practice I used to use employs two doctors and three nurses. Let’s say for sake of argument that the nurses are paid $20 per hour for 40 hours per week. That’s $160 per day and $800 per week per nurse. So, if 4 patients come in on Monday, their office fees have paid one nurse for the week. Four patients in a day seems low based on every visit I’ve ever made to a doctor’s office: it seems to be typically about 2-3 per hour (or more), which is about 20 per day. Twenty patients times $200 are $4000 a day (gross) that the practice is charging.

Some amount of that goes towards utilities. Other goes to security. Some is used for supplies. Some chunk is paid directly to the government in the form of taxes. And some noticeable amount is paid to a liability coverage company to protect the staff in the event a patient sues them for malpractice (real or imagined).

I read that twenty years ago, a neuro-surgeon in Australia only had to carry $100000 in liability coverage because lawsuits are capped in Australia (except for gross malfeasance, which carries criminal penalties as well as civil ones). At the same time, US-based general surgeons had to carry $1 million in coverage, and neuro-surgeons $5 million. That’s 10-50 TIMES the coverage – at a MINUMUM! And that did not guarantee that if the surgeon was sued, he would be able to cover the costs of the lawsuit with his liability insurance.

That means that two, otherwise identical, surgeons, practicing the same type of work, had to have a ~50x difference in their insurances due to litigation law.

America is a very litigious (lawsuit-happy) country.

Only in America could you have someone sue their microwave manufacturer for not telling them not to use it to dry-off their hamster.

Only in America could someone sue McDonald’s for spilling hot coffee in their lap and burning themselves.

Only in America would a family sue Ford for the death of a wife and mother when she was backing her car on the interstate (patently illegal), and was rear-ended.

Only in America can a home-invader/thief/mugger sue the very family he was attacking because he got injured while trying to escape.

Only in America would a physician be required to carry millions of dollars in liability insurance, order “unneeded” tests, get extra opinions, etc: just in case the patient (or their family) decided that something wasn’t perfect in their care and therefore the doctor should have to pay.

What America needs is not “health care” reform. What America needs is “attitude” reform: we need to not be a country of victimhood, a nation of folks who think it’s someone else’s job to pay for their needs, a citizenry who all participate in the betterment of their nation, a society that is not afraid of mistakes – the society and citizenry that described America during its founding all the way through the early/mid-20th century.

I’m sure most of the folks who use ERs for their PCF aren’t trying to game the system. I’m sure many of them truly can’t afford the cost of going to see a doctor preventatively. I’m positive the percentage of those gaming the system is small.

The problem is that even a small percentage of a big population is a big number. If only 1 percent of 1 percent of the population were in the “gaming” category, that would be about 30000 individuals. Spread across the fifty states, it’d be merely a few hundred per region. If that was the percentage, health coverage would not need be so expensive.

Instead, and whether they intend to “game” or not (and I’m positive the great majority do not), the number of uninsured is 10-15% of the population. The number of insured, then, is 85-90%.

How many of those who have health coverage abuse that coverage? How many never go to a doctor, never use the insurance they pay for, and only have it just-in-case? How many go to the doctor every time they have a sniffle?

Forcing all Americans to have health coverage will cost taxpayers hundreds or thousands of billions of dollars.

Capping and limiting lawsuits would cost little more than passing yet another law.

Health care providers need to not be afraid that an honest misdiagnosis will land them in the poor house. Patients need to realize that there is no perfect diagnosis – sometimes even the best teams and techniques won’t determine the cause of their malady. Maybe it’s imagined. Maybe it’s real. Maybe it’s never been seen before. Maybe it’s just that the doctor you use doesn’t know what he’s looking at when he reads the X-ray. Maybe he’s new. Maybe he’s tired. Perhaps it was just your loved one’s time to go.

Forcing yet another trillion-dollar measure down the throats of hard-working Americans won’t cure the ills of the system.

How often does merely throwing money at a problem solve it?

How often does throwing people and ideas and a healthy attitude at a problem solve, mitigate, or refocus it?

Once good ideas, attitude, and people are working on a problem, money can be directed well. We won the first space race because we put all the best people we could find to work trying to solve the problem – and gave them fiduciary resources to make their visions happen.

Everything we as a nation have ever won has been because those with the vision, courage, and ideas to make somethign happen have gotten out there and done it.

We can reform health care once we remove [most] fear from the system.

Fear cripples any environment: doctors fear being wrong, so they order more tests; they fear patients suing them, so they are hyper-cautious in evaluations and diagnoses. Insurance companies fear lawsuits, so they charge customers lots of money for even the most basic of services. Patients fear the costs of insurance and that their doctor may not be perfect, so they use the ER for their doctor – or they sue for a misdiagnosis or “wrongful” death.

Doctors are human. They can make mistakes. Health care professionals don’t make many mistakes – ever. It’s one of the few professions where everyone is expected to be flawless. And it’s one of the few professions where the vast majority (I’d venture to say >99%) are flawless. From drawing blood and giving shots to replacing livers and hearts: medical professionals daily turn out not only their best work, but exceed the expectations of any reasonable person.

denita smith, 1981-2007

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

As I mentioned a few days ago, I was a juror on a trial. That trial was the State of North Carolina vs Shannon Crawley in the unlawful death of Denita Smith on 04-Jan-2007.

Miss Smith’s fiancee, Jermier Stroud, was implicated by the defendant. Mr Stroud is a police officer in Greensboro. Under oath, and in his previously-sworn statements, he showed himself to be a scuz-ball. Simultaneously dating Denita (for 7 years) and Shannon (for 1.5 years in the middle of the time he was “with” Denita, and culminating in a pregnancy). Under oath he admitted that he never planned to tell either girl about the other. Under oath he showed himself to be untrustworthy, a “player”, a liar, and just a general “bad guy”.

He also said that within a couple months of Denita’s murder he was dating again.

However, as bad an individual as we all believe Mr Stroud to be, he could not have been at Denita’s apartment on either 03-Jan or 04-Jan, as Miss Crawley claimed – whereas she was at the apartment the day before (I think to “scope it out”), and admits to being there on the morning of 04-Jan. She claimed that Jermier had kidnapped her to Durham both days – but multiple incoming and outgoing cell phone calls place him in or near Greensboro on the third. With those, and many other, holes in her story, we found Miss Crawley to be guilty of murder in the first degree of Miss Smith.

None of us wanted to find her guilty. I believe we all wanted to believe her: we wanted someone like Mr Stroud to be punished for what he had contributed. However, as the evidence was presented and reviewed, that conclusion was not possible.

I personally think that he’s responsible for the death of his fiancee – he did several things that I think should disqualify him at least as a police officer (reliability, lying, trustworthiness) – I do not believe he was the one who pulled the trigger. I think he was the causative factor in Miss Crawley’s crime, but causative factors do not alleviate her of guilt in the actual crime.

I’m sure this will be appealed.

I hope Mr Stroud is brought out of his place of service to the community for having acted in such ways. However, regardless of his contributions to the crime, Miss Crawley still had a choice until the moment she pulled the trigger – and did not opt to stop.

N&O report.

end6 must die

Friday, October 16th, 2009

Have any of you seen end6.org?

Apparently some web sites choose to redirect their viewers to end6.org rather than render in IE6.

Yes – IE6 is old. Very old. But hundreds of thousands of us are stuck using it while at work due to bad IT policies, or upgrade paranoia.

Taking me to end6 instead of your content doesn’t make me ever want to go see it at another time … say when I get home and can use a modern browser.

I’m all for pushing folks to get rid of IE6 in favor of, well, pretty much anything else. But telling me to get rid of IE6 when I have no control over it doesn’t inspire confidence in the service or content that is being offered.

And as for the end6.org site? Why is not promoting Google’s Chrome along with Firefox, Opera, Safari, and IE8?

bad math and the digital economy

Monday, October 5th, 2009

I generally like reading Seth Godin’s blog. However, this post on the digital music economy isn’t very helpful, in my opinion.

“A study last year conducted by members of PRS for Music, a nonprofit royalty collection agency, found that of the 13 million songs for sale online last year, 10 million never got a single buyer and 80 percent of all revenue came from about 52,000 songs. That’s less than one percent of the songs.”

Yes – 0% of a large number is still 0. But 0.5% of a large number.. is a big number, too.

What I think that article is telling us is that people are only willing to pay for .5% of music available online.

It speaks nothing to the relative popularity of said music – just to it’s profitability. I legally obtain lots of music. I buy CDs, use iTunes, stream radio, etc.

I also find freely-available songs from artists, and download them from their websites.

Also note – of the 13,000,000 songs available, 10,000,000 never had any purchases made. That means that 3,000,000 of them did – which means there was at least enough interest on some folks’ parts to give it a shot.

I think that means that most people won’t pay for the crap that’s shoved out the doors, and only want the good stuff.

You used to be stuck with 10 songs you didn’t want along with the 2-4 you did off a given album – the article says this means the bad songs were financing the good ones. That’s backwards: it was/is the good ones financing the bad ones. Now that people can get just the ones they want (ie, the good ones), we’re seeing how much of what is produced is really just junk.

out/open-sourcing education

Sunday, September 6th, 2009

Along with the /. post mentioned by Jason, is Bob Cringely’s discussion on outsourcing education.

What is the emphasis on in-person education from specific professors? I’ve been asked for my transcript professionally once – and that’s because my current employer pays more attention to grades than technical aptitude.

I can recall only a small handful of professors I would want to take classes with, and almost none who I actually got one-on-one time with while in school. (I think there was only ever one, Dale Bryant @ HVCC.)

MIT, Berkeley, and myriad other schools are making their lectures available online for free. Hundreds of schools have podcasts of classes and special events.

So, why DO we insist on graduating from “the school” – and not learning what we can and want, when and where we can and are able?

html 5

Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009

A list apart has a nice write-up of the forthcoming HTML 5 standard.

If you are like most designers, you probably don’t write all your markup by hand. But until the tools you use catch up to the new elements in (X)HTML 5, you will be doing some markup by hand while you learn. There’s been a bit of confusion (and controversy!) about the relationship between HTML 5, XHTML 1.0/1.1, and XHTML 5. Let’s clear that up right now.

HTML 4.0 (the markup language we all know and love) is based on a “rulebook” called SGML. In the SGML rulebook, element names are not case sensitive, you can have elements with optional closing tags (like <p>), and you can have attribute values without quotation marks. XHTML 1.0 and 1.1 are based on a rulebook called XML. In the XML rulebook, element and attribute names are case sensitive, every opening tag must have a closing tag, and attribute values must be quoted.

HTML 5 defines a markup language that isn’t based on either rulebook, but that can be written in either “HTML form” (or serialization, as the spec calls it) or “XHTML form”.

Excellent – so now we all have an easier standard to work with that is more flexible, less demanding, and .. oh yeah: is only supported in the absolute newest of browsers.

hizook and google

Wednesday, September 2nd, 2009

I recently found out about Hizook – a robotics news aggregator.

I found out from this story that was posted to Hacker News. It seems that Google thought their traffic spike was anomalous, and disabled their Adsense account without warning.

Thankfully it was re-enabled a few days later, but it does undermine some confidence in Google’s claim to “Do no evil”.